There are just a couple of hours left in 2011 in NY and it is already the new calendar year in many parts of the world. 3. The ten-yr treasury connection which began the year at 3.29% ended the year at 1.87%, the very first time it has ended a yr at below 2% within the last 50 years. The drop in the rates also made US treasuries one of the better investments for the entire year, season connection returning 16 with the ten.04% for the entire year; the price gratitude component accounted for 12.75%. Ironic, don’t you think?
After all, this was the entire year of the fantastic S&P downgrade of the US sovereign rating which I discussed on my summer vacation in August. Are lower rates of interest very good news? I don’t think so and I submitted on the idea earlier this year. Yr A lot for last!
What does all this tell us about next calendar year? It attacks me that the quantities are sending discordant text messages. The money and revenue flows indicate a recovery, at least in corporate income, the treasury bond market is awfully pessimistic about future development and the stock market vacillates between euphoria and despair. I must say I do not know what next calendar year provides, but I am ready to produce a guess. I apologize for both US-centric and macro nature of this post but I am starting on my annual data upgrade this week.
- Consider buck cost averaging
- Pay your quarterly approximated taxes online
- Modeling Income Statement
- Long term capital gratitude
- Compound Interest > Simple Interest
- Strong brand images with intellectual property that people protect
During that evaluation, I am looking at how equities have shifted globally and world-wide trends in both valuation multiples (PE, Price to book, EV/EBITDA etc.), and corporate finance factors (dividends, debt ratios, comes back on equity/capital). I’ll have a more detailed post after I am done but I look forward to learning considerably more from the figures than from hearing expert prognostications. So, happy New Year! I wish you, your families as well as your loved ones the very best for the year ahead! Be healthy and happy!
Just ask historians. From rates below zero significantly less than this past year, inflation across the developed world has risen in recent months toward central bank or investment company targets, generally driven with an increasing essential oil price. And if history is any guide, bond markets had better beware. Paul Schmelzing, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England from Harvard University, has researched 800 many years of the bond market’s history and says the most relevant parallel with today’s environment is with the late 1960s under U.S.
President Richard Nixon. AMERICA was growing from a prolonged amount of low inflation, the working jobs market was tightening and a new pro-business president experienced raised objectives of fiscal enlargement. It was a bruising time for bond investors. February 1 – Financial Times (Eric Platt): “Trading volumes of US corporate debt hit an archive level on Tuesday.
38bn worth of investment quality, on Tuesday high yield and convertible bonds swapped hands, surpassing a high water market established last March… The surge in trading comes after a close to record month of borrowing by companies through US capital markets. February 2 – Bloomberg (Sho Chandra): “Worker productivity in the U.S.
The measure of employee output each hour increased at a 1.3% annualized rate, after a modified 3.5% rise in the last three a few months… Expenses per worker rose at a 1.7% pace. February 2 – Reuters (Lucia Mutikani): “U.S. January 31 – Reuters (Chuck Mikolajczak): “U.S. February 1 – Bloomberg (Jamie Butters and David Welch): “Toyota… led major carmakers reporting lower U.S.
January, even while an industry attempting for another record season piled on special discounts to keep showrooms active. Deliveries fell about 11% for both Toyota and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV. February 1 – Wall Street Journal (Laura Kusisto): “Young Americans is losing self-confidence in their prospects for buying a home, recommending that despite having prices at all-time highs the imagine homeownership is dropping its hold on some. January 31 – Financial Times (Alistair Gray): “An important bankers lobby is pressing the Trump administration to tackle one of the thorniest unsolved problems from the financial meltdown by overhauling both huge businesses that back most US home loans.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be turning into privately owned utilities with earnings to shareholders depending on regulators under proposals put forward by the Mortgage Bankers Association. January 30 – Bloomberg (Michael McDonald): “U.S. … The 1.9% average reduction reported by the National Association of College and University Business Officers and money supervisor Commonfund…, the entire year finished June 30 for, weighed against an almost 4% gain… in the S&P 500 Index. February 1 – NY Times (Binyamin Appelbaum): “The Federal Reserve is waiting for more info about the Trump administration’s financial plans, just like everyone else.